Luck or skill?
Twenty real Bitcoin days, picked at random from the last year. Call each one: will it close up or down? Then see how a coin did on the same days, and how often luck alone gets your score.
- Real daily closes
- Dates hidden until the end
- Nothing sent or stored
Loading 364 days of prices…
How often a fair coin gets each score out of 20. Your score is gold; the lighter bars are scores a coin beats you with. Half of all coins get 10 or more right, and one in four gets 12 or more.
What 20 calls can and can’t tell you
The same arithmetic applies to every track record you are shown, including trading signals.
12 of 20 happens to one coin in four
A fair coin gets 12 or more of 20 right 25 % of the time, and 14 or more almost 6 % of the time. To tell skill from luck you need far more calls, or calls that were locked before the outcome.
Compare with a lazy guess
“Always up” scores well in a rising market and badly in a falling one, without knowing anything. A forecast only counts if it beats simple rules like that on the same days.
Show the misses too
Anyone can show a winning streak after the fact. A claim counts when every call was written down before the outcome, including the ones that went wrong.
We played this game with 62,907 calls
Our own crypto engine logged every score before its outcome. At that size, luck has nowhere to hide: the verdict was indistinguishable from noise, one of seven tests passed. The numbers and both reports are on the front page.
Have a signal or forecast of your own? The Quick Check runs the same seven tests on your file, free.