Our method, tested in public.
We validate trading signals and forecasts for a living. Here the same method runs on everyday questions, day and night: forecasts locked before the outcome, data saved before it changes, and every step committed where anyone can check it.
- Locked before the outcome
- Rules published first
- Scored against data we don’t control
What the lab did today
Read from public commits and GitHub runs every 15 minutes. No result appears here before its test is finished and checked.
Reading the pulse…
Three steps, every experiment
The same rules we use when a client asks us to judge a signal. Nothing here is tuned after the fact.
Before the outcome
Every forecast is saved, hashed and chained to the one before it, before the outcome exists. Nobody can change it afterwards, including us.
Against independent data
Scored against measurements we don’t control, with rules published before the first data point and not changed while the test runs.
With a lazy guess
A forecast only counts if it beats a simple baseline, such as “tomorrow will be like today”. Most people never check this.
What the lab is testing
Six investigations. Each one publishes its method and code, works only from public sources, and leaves a trace on GitHub at every step.
Which weather forecast is right most often?
DMI, MET Norway, OpenWeatherMap and the pilots’ own airport forecast, for five Danish cities, locked four times a day before the weather happens. Pilots don’t check a weather app: is the forecaster on duty better than the apps?
Day – · chain checked daily · first scoreboard around 28 October
Live status, stations and rules →Do offshore wind farms take the rain from the coast?
A 2026 study projects 10–15 % less coastal rain after a huge build-out. We test today’s farms against 35 years of Danish and German rain gauges, every rule locked before the first rain value is read. On the map: all 2,848 turbines and every gauge in the test.
Weather model (ERA5), then the power check, then the test · no rain values read
Method, progress and the time machine →Energy data, locked as published
Energinet’s CO₂ forecast every hour and the official price list every day, saved before they are overwritten. The picture: the electricity tax per kWh, 88 øre in 2019 and 0.8 øre in 2026.
Live status →Did the experts get it right?
Ten years of GDP and inflation forecasts from the Government, the Nationalbank and the Economic Councils, against what happened and against a lazy guess.
See the scoreboard →Where Denmark’s wastewater goes
Treatment plants, sewer overflows and rainwater outlets in every municipality, from the national data. Only 36 of 4,195 overflows report volumes from measured flow and concentrations.
Pick a municipality →Farming’s share of the nitrogen
The usual figure is about 70 %. With open measurements and the method locked before the first value, more farmland clearly means more nitrogen, but the share itself can’t be pinned down.
See why →Try the method yourself
Four tools that run in your browser and store nothing. Each one shows a trap that fools people every day.
The noise machine
A thousand forecasters flip coins for a season, and some look brilliant. Then watch the method take them apart: count the tries, lock the names, run season two. Can you spot the one real talent hidden among them?
Run the machine →Luck or skill?
Call 20 real Bitcoin days up or down, then see how often a coin does as well. Why 60 % on 20 guesses proves nothing.
Play →Lock your prediction
Seal a prediction today and prove later that you called it. The text is sealed in your own browser and never leaves it.
Seal a prediction →Track record checker
Type in any win rate you’ve been shown and see how often pure luck does as well, including the tight take-profit trick.
Check a record →Want to explore the data yourself?
The scoreboard will be public. Access to the full data is by application: browse every forecast against the measurement, hour by hour, and check any download against the hash chain. It is for students, journalists, researchers and anyone curious.
Applications open together with our client portal. Email us with “Playground” in the subject line and we will tell you when. We only use your address for that.